Caltrain touts the prospect of substantially higher ridership, and the potential for more frequent service – in its application for Cap and Trade funding to fully electrify service between San Francisco and San Jose Tamien station.

With all-electric, more frequent service and 8-car trains, Caltrain estimates that ridership could more than double from about 60,000 per weekday today to over 140,000 by 2040.

The sketched service pattern that could more-than-double ridership includes 8 trains per direction per hour at peak, trains at non-express stations every 15 minutes at peak (but 30 minutes mid-day), and a connection to downtown San Francisco with most trains serving the new Transbay station (details in appendices and attachments). Whether to run a more frequent service pattern – and the goals and span of that service – will be up to the Caltrain Board, in decisions it will make in the context of the ongoing Business Plan (and feedback from riders and community members).

The grant application includes funding for a full set of 8-car electric trains, and for lengthening platforms to hold 8-car trains. But the application only includes funding to study adjusting platforms for level boarding, which could provide half again as much speed benefit as electrification, while greatly improving accessibility for people with wheelchairs, strollers, luggage and bikes.

Interestingly, the grant application includes $3.5 million for secure bicycle storage at Caltrain stations. Caltrain describes the need for bike parking as important to capacity – the agency wants to continue to serve people using bicycles, while enabling space on the trains to serve more passengers.

Also interestingly, the grant application notes a consequence of fully electrifying service between San Francisco and San Jose Tamien could be redeployment of diesel trains to increase service from San Jose to Gilroy – and on down to Salinas. But the grant does not request funding to run the additional service; it is unclear how far the Measure B funding that VTA raised in 2016 would go to beef up service from Tamien to Gilroy.

Some questions raised by the cap and trade application:
* The timeline outlined in application indicates that Caltrain would start electric service immediately with longer trains, and move to all-electric service up to 5 years later. Would it be possible to start all-electric service sooner?
* Is it a good idea to modify Caltrain platforms twice, or is there any chance of getting funding and moving to level boarding sooner?
* Will the train sets allow Caltrain to run 8-car trains at peak period, and split them up into 4-car trains for more frequent service off-peak

The Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program received applications for much more funding than the amount available, so we will see how much funding Caltrain may get from the state toward longer trains and full electrification.