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The Green Caltrain blog is sponsored by BayRail Alliance, an all-volunteer non-profit organization supporting green rail transit in the Bay Area. This blog and BayRail have no affiliation with Caltrain.

Caltrain ridership expected to triple by 2040 according to San Francisco County Transportation Authority expects

A new San Francisco County Transportation Authority study forecasts that Caltrain ridership will increase by 200% by 2040, according to a study presented at the Citizens Advisory Committee  on January 30.   The increase is expected to be driven by Caltrain electrification, the completion of the Downtown Extension to the Transbay terminal (DTX), and continued growth in the South Bay.

Update:  SFCTA clarifies that the Caltrain projection is only for trips that will touch San Francisco.   Caltrain “only” expects ridership to nearly double overall once DTX is completed.

The presentation, reviewing transit, biking and walking needs in San Francisco, is a prelude to a discussion about San Francisco’s transportation infrastructure investment plans.

In his state of the city address on January 28, Mayor Lee called for a vision and funding strategies to meet future transit needs, starting with a task force convening in February, including SPUR director Gabe Metcalf and Supervisor Scott Wiener.  DTX is one of the major underfunded priorities for San Francisco. San Francisco’s approach to funding transit priorities will be worth watching in the coming year.


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