Helped by nearly $6 million in added revenue driven by increased ridership, Caltrain announced at yesterday’s board meeting that the 2014 operating forecast was uneventful, with no planned service cuts.  However, the budget continues to be balanced with temporary sources, which go away after this year, so 2015 looks risky again.

In recent years, SamTrans has cut its contribution due to financial problems, the other 2 county agencies have cut to match, and much of the remaineder has been made up by VTA and Muni paying SamTrans back from its 1990s purchase of the right of way. That loan will be paid back after this year.   Even though Caltrain brings in about 60% of its revenue from riders, it gets 40% of its funding from public sources, the majority of which comes from the 3 counties. If the counties don’t start picking up the tab again, Caltrain is left with a $20 million dollar hole in its budget.

On the bright side, the San Mateo County Supervisors are considering using some revenue from a sales tax approved by voters last November to support SamTrans. This could enable SamTrans to meet its commitment to Caltrain, which would enable Caltrain’s operating funding to continue to support current service.   Supporting SamTrans was one of the top recommendations according to a recent online forum. The Supervisors will hold a hearing about the proposed transportation investments on July 9. We will post again before that meeting.

Caltrain is planning to increase the cost of parking at a stations from $4 to $5 daily.  According to Caltrain’s last study in 2008, only 27% of Caltrain riders drive and park at the station, so this is affects a minority of riders.  Compared to the cost of parking all day in some city parking facilities, the Caltrain lot is still a bargain (it costs $16 to park all day in Palo Alto, and $10 in Menlo Park).

While the 2014 operating budget is uneventful, there is a risk to this year’s capital budget, particularly train car maintenance.  SamTrans is the main source of risk in the operating budget, San Francisco/Muni is the source of risk in the capital budget. Caltrain is asking $4.8 million from each partner for capital projects.  To meet its contribution level, San Francisco would need to advance money from its Measure K funds.   If this doesn’t happen, Caltrain will continue to skimp on train car maintenance.  Reduced maintenance of aging train sets has been contributing to Caltrain’s recent reliability issues caused by mechanical breakdowns.

San Francisco is currently studying a range of measures to keep up its contributions to Caltrain. Ridership in San Francisco went up 11% last year in proportion to overall ridership increase. Caltrain is an integral piece of transportation system serving SOMA, Mission Bay, the Giants and soon the Warriors, and reliance on Caltrain will increase as there is more development in the surrounding area.  Watch for public meetings on San Francisco’s plans to support Caltrain in the next few months.

Is year by year nail-biting a good way to fund the transit backbone for San Francisco and Silicon Valley?  Obviously not.  Even if SamTrans’ financial crisis is alleviated and San Francisco gains additional funding, the system is fundamentally unstable.  Caltrain still needs stable funding.

At yesterday’s Caltrain board meeting, chief operating officer Chuck Harvey said that Caltrain was in the market for additional train cars to handle the serious crowding. Caltrain is seeing record ridership, up to 47,000 on an average weekday which is 11% up from the previous year,  according to the new ridership numbers released at the board meeting.  Trains added in the last year on the edge of the peak period have helped a little to divert riders from the most popular trains, but not enough to prevent crowding.

Popular trains are standing room only.   In response to a question from board member Yeager about why standing is a problem, Harvey noted that the average trip length on Caltrain is over 20 miles (which is about half an hour) which is a long time for a rider to stand.

Harvey said that the operations team is travelling to Las Vegas Los Angeles where a set of used train cars is available; the Caltrain team will check whether the used trains would be fit for service.  Caltrain spokeswoman Jayme Ackemann says that the trains would be used “where we are seeing the greatest demand”, which presumably means bullet stops.   Are the platforms long enough at all the bullet stations for a 6th train – would Caltrain need to extend platforms or tell passengers which cars to use for which stops?  (Amtrak does this for short platform stations on the East Coast).  How these issues would be handled are to be determined.

It’s good to see Caltrain take steps to handle the extra riders, before electrification provides more capacity.  Perhaps the EMUs can be configured to be less uncomfortable for standing riders, and have more standing room allowing for more passengers per train.

Senator Jerry Hill’s bill to nail down funding for Caltrain electrification, SB557 hit a snag today in the Senate Transportation hearing. The bill ensures that money dedicated toward the Northern and Southern California bookends would be spent for that purpose without being diverted. An amendment was proposed to set a sunset for the provision to bring it in line with the existing 2018 sunset for the High Speed Rail funding appropriation in SB1029.  According to Jerry Hill staffer Nate Solov, the amendment isn’t necessary (apparently because it modifies SB1029 without superceding it), and the bill will be back a week from today in the Senate Transportation Committee for a vote.

Thanks to everyone who sent a letter in support of the bill.  At the hearing, Senator Hill mentioned that the bill has support from Caltrain riders and constituents.  If you support the bill and haven’t sent a letter yet you can do so here, since the bill will be up again next week.

So far in response to a Friends of Caltrain alert, participants are 62:2 in favor, with letters of support from all three Caltrain counties, plus several other supporters in the East Bay.  62 Caltrain supporters sent letters in favor the bill, one sent a letter opposing it (wanting more flexibility for the High Speed Rail authority to change its spending plans), and one sent a letter to Friends of Caltrain opposing the bill due to opposition for High Speed Rail.

Meanwhile, progress on a few other bills relating to transit funding in Sacramento:

* a bill to reauthorize the Carl Moyer program,  SB11 (Pavley), which is part of the electrification funding package, passed Senate Transportation on April 9 and has been referred to the Appropriations Committee.  The senate bill has a minor amendment unrelated to Caltrain electrification. The corresponding House bill, passed Assembly Transportation on April 8 and AB8 been referred to Natural Resources.

* two bills to reduce the threshold for transit funding from 2/3 to 55%, SCA-4 and SCA-8, are up for hearing on May 15 in Senate Government and Finance Committee

*  AB797, a bill to streamline the management of complex projects by contracting with a “Construction Manager/General Contractor, passed committee 12:4 on a party line vote. Caltrain wants to use this process for electrification.

Last week the California Air Resources board staff report recommended climate-friendly transportation to receive the largest share of Cap and Trade funding. This could create additional funding for transit starting in 2015.

The CARB staff report concludes that since transportation generates the largest share of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants, it makes sense to invest funds in lower-carbon transportation.

Investments in Sustainable Communities and Clean Transportation can include:

• Rail modernization and system integration (including high speed rail)
• Public transit with connectivity to rail; expanded transit and ridership programs and infrastructure
• Livable communities and transit-oriented development
• Active transportation (biking and walking)
• Development and implementation of plans for Sustainable Communities Strategies (e.g., general and specific plans to implement SCS)
• Low-carbon freight equipment
• Zero-emission passenger transportation; plus necessary fueling/charging infrastructure

The report’s conclusions are praised by Transform which has been conducting a campaign to urge the funds to be spent on transit and land use supporting transit.

A 3-year investment plan will be incorporated into the Governor’s May budget update, which is scheduled to be debated and finalized by the legislature in June.

Carbon auctions for electricity and large industrial sources began in November 2012. In its first year, the auctions are expected to bring in about $600 million. Most of this revenue from energy production are distributed as rebates to electricity customers. $84 million from industrial sources will go to a fund that the State Legislature and Governor will appropriate.

Cap and trade revenues for transportation fuels will start in 2015. The decision about how to allocate these funds is being made now. There will be a public hearing on the funding strategy at the next California Air Resources Board meeting, April 25 starting at 9am. The hearing is the first item of regular business, and will be webcast here.

Last night, Burlingame City Council agreed to apply for design funding for grade separation at the highly-congested Broadway station, despite lack of confidence that Burlingame would ultimately win construction funding in the competition for $200 million in San Mateo County grade separation funds. Burlingame faces competition from San Mateo, which is eager for grade separation at 25th Avenue and has local funding set aside for that project. Menlo Park and South San Francisco have also indicated interest in applying.

Council said that process will need to include public meetings to get the community’s take on possible designs. Council Member Nagel encouraged fellow council members to support community input into the design. Agreement on a design approach will help, even if Burlingame’s project is not chosen in the current San Mateo County grant cycle. Nagel said that congressional representatives, Anna Eshoo and Jackie Speier have offered to help get funding. But as long as cities do not agree on what they want for transportation funding, they cannot their help to get funding.

If grade separation in Burlingame does not get funded in this grant cycle, the Council is eager to have the Broadway station platforms redesigned to eliminate its “holdout” status. Burlingame is eager to see service restored at the Broadway station (which currently has weekend service only) when Caltrain is electrified. Fixing the “holdout” issue will help restore the service, since “holdout” stations add delays to the Caltrain schedule.

Stations that lack the ability block passengers and pedestrians from crossing the tracks while trains are approaching are subject to a “holdout” rule requiring a train travelling in one direction to wait until a train in the other direction has left. At the last Caltrain board meeting, Caltrain announced plans to seek funding to eliminate the “holdout” status at South San Francisco, Burlingame and Atherton.

The City Council will also create a subcommittee to reach out to peers in San Mateo and Millbrae to investigate the possibility of a larger project across the 3 cities. Attempted discussions among the cities did not move forward several years ago, when dedicated, elevated High Speed Rail tracks were proposed, but there might be new opportunities to work together in the era of the blended system.

For the cities that don’t make the final cut in San Mateo’s grade separation contest, perhaps there could be more ambitious plans to work together to seek regional, state and federal funding for the remaining projects. Increased Caltrain demand sparked by the completion of Central Subway (2019) and the Downtown Extension (2020s) could put severe pressure on remaining at-grade crossings even before the first High Speed Rail trains arrive (2029+).